Monday, March 31, 2014

Ukraine, and WW3?

As usual with political conflicts, facts are impossible to obtain with regard to Ukraine. Today's high-tech world enables wealthy first-world countries to use an array of weapons, not just guns, missiles and nuclear munitions. Psych-ops [pro-Russia][pro-Europe] , propaganda, media manipulation, bribery, financial blackmail [Western][Russian], covert Special Operations, sanctions, and of course...and outright bullying are all being observed.
Ukraine of course contains valuable natural resources like: iron ore, coal, manganese, natural gas, oil, salt, sulfur, graphite, titanium, magnesium, kaolin, nickel, mercury, timber, and arable land [source].
There is also the matter of Russian oil and gas, which Europe needs. Luckily, the time of this crisis didn't lead to the cutting of Russian gas to Europe in the height of winter, like in 2009 when Western Europeans died as a result of cuts. Russia sells about $180b to Europe and the USA, one side needing money, the other the resources as the world supply shrinks and stable exporting partners descend into instability or sanctions.
Another important factor is the ethnic make-up of former Soviet Union Ukraine. Ukraine has a diverse ethnic make-up, including many small ethnic groups. In the 2001 census, 17.2% were Russian, whereas 0.5% were Crimean Tartars[source]. The Eastern parts of Ukraine, nearer the Russian border generally favour Russia, the Western parts, Europe. 
Failure by Bush Administration and the planners of the invasion of Iraq, (Cheney, Rumsfeld, Perle, Wolfowitz etc), has left that country in a brink state of civil war, because they either planned it or were so really stupid as to not understand how important ethnicity and tribal connections are. Read Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tunisia, Egypt...
Russia also has many ethnic disasters, some bordering on ethnic cleansing[source].
it also has to be remembered that the European economy is suffering, with places like Spain, Greece  and Portugal, among other, experiencing youth unemployment as high as 50%. This has been one of the major factors, along with immigration, that have led to the dangerous rise of the Far-right. [france][Ukraine][Greece][Germany][UK]. 
Google the origins of WW2 if you want to understand more...
The last thing to consider in this dangerous development is the implications of a short limited nuclear war. The effects would devastating not just the the directly effected victims, but the whole world[link].
So far, Russia has annexed Crimea with minimum bloodshed. The only hope is that, even if borders have to be drawn, the rights and safety of the most at risk is reserved, and they are not sacrificed in the pursuit of land, resources and world power. With the possibility of a World War starting, as conditions are precarious, everyone needs to take a step back, a deep breath, and think clearly of what is best.




Tuesday, February 11, 2014

The humorous side of America's North-East Asia game

Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his of right-wing political comrades(Shintaro Ishihara, Hasimoto, Katsuto Momii etc...) have transformed an area once prosperous and peaceful with trade and tourism, into a war of hatred-based words.
South Korea and China had suffered immensely under Japan's colonial occupation, just as many African countries suffered under British and European colonial rule.
Japan, which surrendered to, and is still occupied in parts by the USA, has a special security pact with the US, whereby the US would protect Japan from attack under the Japan-US Security Treaty.
Increasingly, America has been sabra-rattling towards China, while Japan has been taking aim at South Korea and China.
But imagine two humorous outcomes.
1. Japan vs South Korea War. Ignited by a Takashima/Dokdo Island dispute, American military in South Korea would be attacking American military in Japan and vise versa.
2. USA vs China. If China and Taiwan formed a confederation, with Hong Kong and Macau, China would gain all of Taiwan's weapons, including over 800 fighter planes, missiles, warships and submarines and WMD. All capable to strike the USA's regional bases. Weapons provided by America.
So time to take a few deep breaths, calm down, and think of the good old benefits of trade and tourism...